Friday, July 28, 2017

july 28 2017

i do love a good arguement-- and puppy raising 
certainly provides me with every opportunity.  so before we start, let me tick off the facts that will be ticking off a few  facebook people -- check this logic very carefully.... and if you find a  logical loop by all means let me know....
we need to have all the staff / cp's verify all this... and be ready for the battle....

to breed or not to breed-- that is the question.... megan is quite rightly worried...it is her job to worry... mostly kennel space....
on the numbers game.... we have 18 young pups of unknown quality ( 8 /mom   imported)   --plus  a  bred female- gabby - who did not concieve last time we bred her- + a nice  female  audry...now in heat and ready to breed in 5 days...  which is too soon to tell if gabby has one pup or 12 in her tummy,
having not enough puppies is a total dead end...you can not produce service dogs if you don't have pups..... having too many pups is a challange -  which--- while giving us a chance to be more selective,--   can be managed by our volunteers who want a dane-- or our extensive list of people requesting one... and in the back of my head.. we have several respectable ADI start ups that i am struggling to convinc3e to use great danes-- we might share dogs with them as long as we have camera people in the area to check on them...  we as a group have faced  worse challanges than too many pups...  32 at once proves we can do it... not that i want 32 at once....but i am not worried about that...

now the white issue... for years i have suspected that the genetic study of dane colors list has been accurate as far as the 40 litters we have produced... and i have said as much many times.. in preparation for people to undersatand why i see audry as  a possible mother i really put the numbers on paper-- and our experience with 284 puppies just about mirrors teh percentages that they talk about in this study- i knew that-- but to have it so close is a little shocking.
in 25 words or less---  they say on paper-- that one black  parent -- (or a black with white) will not produce a  white-- or a deaf white...it is all there in a very complicated spread sheet---our tree of statistics agrees... thumper and bumpy ( both very black)  never produced even one white pup... 
one of the worst combinations is a merle and a harl- and if anyone wants to start an arguement about who to breed, it is that  set of parents that is the problem-- and our statistics-- from the "tree" we have... clearly shows  the cross between scarlott and bentley will produce deaf white-- and they did...there are other things beside color--and that set of parents also provided 20 service dogs... one of them  our shining star...george...
this means we should be prepared to deal with whatever.... and i hope we are..
in the chart   of  our 2 worst  breedings....
 merle/ harl parents predicts 25% each--- black, harl, merle, white  --our scarlot/bently pups.... 34% 24%  24  17%
the harl to harl cross  predicts 25%black - 33%  harl-17%merle-25% white--- our HH cross ( like bentley x chaos) 15% 42% 19% 23%

 teh black/white trim both parents predicts 100% black looking dogs ---- with our  out stats   it is 93% black and 7% harl...  close....

my choice of audry's partner would be wilbur--  a nice dog all round... and mostly black since that chart has been so accurate with the other percentages, i see no reason to doubt that the cross should produce only merles and harls..   with one small detail just to prove mommy nature has the final word in any animal breeding....  that blk blk cross should have been 100% black.... but one lone harl got in there making it 93% and 7%
so we are relying on the odds of that study to be correct-- and so far our numbers prove it.

now just to prove there  is still an element of "off the wall" logic..  100 years ago llinda scaturro  - country run danes in new york... told me there was a white deaf stud in new york that was producing only harlequin pups- and everyone was rushing to breed to him...  i thought  she was nutts. maybe she wasn't...
and...... good old goldie  may be the one to decide we should not be breeding bentley/scarleoot anymore...  especially to scarlott-- because he just can't/doesn't/whatgever... goldie has her ways...

so do your own research  look at the colors in our  "tree"  and do teh math..
i actually didn't check teh math  because our resident school teacher-- dawn.... ( and ajay) did it...

the quick response to  "shouldn't breed a white dane " is  " not to a merle or a harl, ...but you can to a black"
*****
from george-- report to the "board of directors" ---he  also loves to  "discuss" things
Always good to get it all out there and talk
I think all went well( I think😀
Summary
1 Megan primary complaint is one of numbers and Carlene is very willing to adopt out fabulous failures. What is most important to Carlene is the we have enough puppies the able to keep the placements moving and not be short on dogs. I think that can be accomplished if we place those dogs who won't be service dogs

2audrey may not be a white dog but a harl. From Carlene's stats it is harl and Merle cross that produces white pups and info fro the Great Dane stats seem to support such. I am not 100% sure without heavy duty research but her stats agree with the Great Dane clubs

3. I emphasized that there appears to be a difficulty for some of her employees to approach her and discuss these things. Unfortunately Megan gets the brunt as the one starting the discussion. However I emphasized her value and Carlene understands this and I don't think it will be a problem. Megan is important to SDP

For now..... I am off to England
*****
i forgot who sent this..:)
SURE IS NICE HAVING A BUDDY EVERYWHERE I GO! BETWEEN THE FACT THAT MOST OF MY FRIENDS GRADUATED THIS PAST MAY AND LEFT THE AREA AND MY JOB CAN BE PRETTY LONELY SINCE I DON'T HAVE MUCH FACE-TO-FACE CONTACT WITH PEOPLE DURING THE DAY, I DON'T REALLY HAVE PEOPLE TO GRAB DINNER WITH AFTER WORK OR SPEND WEEKENDS WITH. ASHER'S HAPPILY TAKEN OVER THE BEST FRIEND ROLE FOR NOW AND HE'S EXCELLENT AT IT! HE'S ALSO GIVEN ME COUNTLESS OPPORTUNITIES TO CHAT WITH STRANGERS AROUND BRISTOL AND PROVIDENCE WHO I WOULD NEVER HAVE SPOKEN TO OTHERWISE - HE IS QUITE THE CONVERSATION STARTER, AFTER ALL.
WE'RE PRETTY EXCITED TO GET OUR BAGS PACKED TONIGHT AND HOP ON A PLANE TOMORROW TO SEE FAMILY FOR THE WEEKEND! ASHER WILL BE MEETING THE REST OF THE FAMILY TOMORROW EVENING WHICH WILL INCLUDE HIS COUSIN, A SWEET BOXER MIX, AND I THINK HE'S READY TO EARN HIS WINGS. NEXT TIME YOU HEAR FROM US, WE'LL BE IN SUNNY FLORIDA!

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